Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
